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2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I will be posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post will consist of predictions and analysis for one category.
 
Up first:
 
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
 
ALEC BALDWIN as Jack Donaghy in 30 ROCK
With 30 Rock having concluded its seventh and final season in January, the Emmys will likely wish to award one of its favorite shows one last time.  Baldwin’s Hollywood status coupled with six consecutive nominations (and two wins) should make him a near guarantee for one last nomination as Jack Donaghy.  Should he submit the episode “My Whole Life is Thunder”, in which Jack’s mother dies, he will likely pick up the trophy.

 
JASON BATEMAN as Michael Bluth in ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
 
With all the hype surrounding Arrested Development‘s return, the show’s leading man has garnered good reviews for his performance.  Bateman will likely get a second nomination after being nominated in this category in 2005 for the show’s second season.  He’s not a sure thing, considering Netflix is an uncharted territory at the Emmys, but this is a relatively weak category so he has a good chance of getting in.
 
LOUIS C.K. as Louie in LOUIE
 
Comedian Louis C.K. has risen to fame over the past couple years, building a loyal audience through his standup performances as well as the cult popularity of his FX comedy Louie.  Coupled with his HBO special Oh My God in April, the comedian has never been more in demand.  His performance through season 3 of Louie was his best yet and he was nominated for the show’s first two seasons, so this nomination is assured.
 
DON CHEADLE as Marty Kaan in HOUSE OF LIES
 
Many were kicking themselves last year when they didn’t predict Cheadle’s nomination.  His movie star status, which usually results in Emmys, was disregarded considering House of Liesrelatively average quality.  Regardless, he was able to sneak in and become the show’s only nomination.  He also won a Golden Globe last year and got a nomination at this year’s Critics’ Choice Awards.  He’s not assured, but he’ll probably sneak in again.
 
JON CRYER as Alan Harper in TWO AND A HALF MEN
 
Cryer shocked everyone last year when he was able to win this category, beating presumed frontrunners Louis C.K. and Jim Parsons.  His performance in Two and a Half Men hasn’t been recognized anywhere else but the Emmys, where he’s now received two wins and seven consecutive nominations.  They’ve all but abandoned Two and a Half Men but they can’t seem to get enough of Cryer.  He’ll likely get his eighth nod this year.
 
JIM PARSONS as Dr. Sheldon Cooper in THE BIG BANG THEORY
 
Parsons has achieved two wins among the last four years of nominations, a rarity for such a young actor.  The Emmys clearly love the show, giving nominations to co-stars Johnny Galecki and Mayim Bialik as well as the show.  The Big Bang Theory recently hit 20 million viewers for its sixth season so it’s even more popular than ever before.  Parsons is a nearly guaranteed nomination and has a good shot to win his third Emmy.
 
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     Other possible contenders include: Matt LeBlanc for Episodes, Jake Johnson for New Girl, Andrew Rannells for The New Normal and Joel McHale for Community.  Overall, this has traditionally been one of the weaker categories among the Emmys, with very few worthy contenders to make it competitive.  Anything other than the six I predicted or the four other contenders would be a huge shock.
 
Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
 
The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.
 
Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.
 
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