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2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Reality-Competition Program & Reality Host

With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Today I’m posting two categories.
 
Here are my predictions and analysis for:
 
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
 
THE AMAZING RACE (CBS)
This awards hog will easily get in again this year after winning NINE AWARDS FROM THE PAST TEN YEARS in this category.  It’s unclear if voters simply don’t like/watch any other reality show on television, if they’re just name-checking the show, or if it really is the best every single year, but there’s no way it’ll get snubbed this year.  It will probably win it’s 10th award in September.

 
 
DANCING WITH THE STARS (ABC)
 
Dancing with the Stars has been a mainstay in this category since 2006 and the show’s host, Tom Bergeron, won the Emmy last year for Best Reality Host.  It aired an all-stars edition in the fall and it’s fresh off the buzz from Kellie Pickler’s big win this spring.  The TV Academy is primarily older, which is the main demographic for the show so I’d say it’ll get in again.
 
 
SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE (Fox)
 
This underdog favorite has been a staple of Fox’s summer schedule for years and it’s coming off two consecutive nominations in this category.  Though it has a decidedly younger appeal than Dancing with the Stars, the fact that it’s been able to get repeat nominations as well as a few for host Cat Deeley bodes well for the show’s longevity in this category.  It’ll never win but it should keep getting nominations.
 
SURVIVOR (CBS)
 
I know what you’re thinking: this is wishful thinking at its finest.  Well, hear me out.  Survivor has been on an upswing as of late after the previous few years’ terrible seasons. The Philippines season was highly regarded by both fans and critics and even Caramoan had a fair amount of buzz near the end.  With few other options in this category and a Critics’ Choice TV Award nomination, I’d say it sneaks in for the first time since 2006.
 
TOP CHEF (Bravo)
The only show to pull off a win against The Amazing Race, Top Chef is clearly a fan favorite among Emmy voters.  Like most shows in this category, Top Chef is aging, with the cooking competition about to enter its eleventh season.  It has gotten nominated in this category every year since 2006 and I don’t see it stopping now.  It may still be the only threat to win against The Amazing Race.
 
 
THE VOICE (NBC)

TV’s hottest singing competition series was given a breath of fresh air with new judges Shakira and Usher.  Coupled with airing in the fall and the spring, The Voice should be fresh in voters minds, especially since it just wrapped season 4 a few weeks ago.  Though the show has yet to produce a commercially successful artist, it is still a buzzworthy show so I have no doubt it’ll get a second consecutive nomination here.

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The big snub I’m predicting in this category is Project Runway.  Though the show successfully made the shift to Lifetime a few years ago, I have a feeling that not many voters are watching it anymore.  It hasn’t had any buzzworthy moments this season and Heidi Klum is more prevalent on America’s Got Talent now than the fashion design show.  It could very easily get in here again but I’m taking a risk and guessing it’ll be out.  American Idol was shockingly snubbed last year, indicating that voters might be over the show and that was before this year’s disastrous Mariah Carey-Nicki Minaj-infused season.  It’ll likely be out for good now, especially because of it’s floundering ratings.  Other shows like Chopped or Face Off could sneak in here but they may be too niche to get traction among the Academy.
 
Now let’s move on to our next category:
 
REALITY HOST
 
 
TOM BERGERON for DANCING WITH THE STARS
 
Last year’s winner for Best Reality Host Tom Bergeron should easily be back again this year for a nomination, at the very least.  Bergeron has been nominated every year since this category’s inception and is a consummate pro in the industry.  He’s probably the early favorite to win this award again and I can’t say it wouldn’t be deserved.
 
 
CAT DEELEY for SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE
 
Deeley is one of the most integral parts of So You Think You Can Dance, which is more than you can say for most reality hosts on television.  She has gotten two consecutive nominations in this category in the last two years, and I don’t see her buzz dying down now.  It also doesn’t hurt that the show is currently airing and will air during the official vote after the nominations are released.
 
 
PHIL KEOGHAN for THE AMAZING RACE
 
Ever since this category was invented, many assumed Keoghan would ride The Amazing Race wave to victory.  Though he didn’t get in for the category’s first year, he has gotten a nomination from 2009 onward.  He is a fun presence on the show and even though he’s not heavily involved on screen, this is still The Amazing Race we’re talking about.  Keoghan is an easy nomination to predict, though a win may be tough.
 
 
JEFF PROBST for SURVIVOR
 
Jeff Probst was mysteriously left out of this category last year after winning four consecutive awards in a row.  He is probably the most involved host among this bunch, which is likely part of why he was awarded so often.  I’m guessing that many voters simply assumed he would be safe last year and left him off but I’m expecting him to make it back in and possibly pick up a fifth win.
 
 
RYAN SEACREST for AMERICAN IDOL
 
Even though American Idol got snubbed last year, Seacrest still got a nomination.  He has gotten a nomination every single year since the category’s inception, one of only two hosts to do so (Bergeron being the other).  He is one of the busiest men in Hollywood but American Idol is still his best gig.  Even with the show’s shaky season he still managed to keep it all together without a hitch.  He’ll get another nomination here.
 
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I guess the other contender here is Betty White for her Off Their Rockers show since she got in last year, but I doubt she’ll repeat.  Granted, she is BETTY WHITE, but she does next to nothing on her show and I just can’t see them name-checking her again.  I may be wrong, and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they got lazy, but I’m being optimistic.  Project Runway‘s Heidi Klum may sneak back in after two consecutive snubs but I’m guessing voters are going to move on this year.  Carson Daly could get in with The Voice wave but he doesn’t have the personality of the other contenders here.
 
Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:
Variety Series
 
The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.
 
Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.
 

Also, read my predictions and analysis of other categories:

 
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