With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories. Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.
BRYAN CRANSTON as Walter White in BREAKING BAD
Perhaps one of the greatest performances in the history of television, Bryan Cranston as Walter White has reached such a high level of appreciation that there’s no way they would possibly drop him. The Emmys were actually the first organization to award Cranston, in the show’s very first season, and continued to do so for the next two. Though he didn’t have his absolute best year, he is always a frontrunner to win and will definitely get a nomination.
JEFF DANIELS as Will McAvoy in THE NEWSROOM
I’m not the biggest fan of The Newsroom but Daniels’ performance as an egomaniacal broadcaster that still wants to do the right thing is definitely a highlight. He toes the line between unlikable prick and lovable oaf, and does so with the finesse of a real pro. Assuming the voters go for The Newsroom, which I have a funny feeling they will, they will definitely check Daniels’ name at the very least and possibly give him a win if he submits the speech-heavy pilot episode.
JON HAMM as Don Draper in MAD MEN
It still breaks my heart that Hamm hasn’t won this category yet. The voters have had so many opportunities to award him and yet they keep skipping him over. I have a feeling he’ll be another statistic of an actor who gets nominated every/almost every season but never wins (see: Steve Carell, Hugh Laurie, Martin Sheen). But the fact of the matter is, if he couldn’t win for the season 4 episode “The Suitcase”, in 2011, a year when Cranston wasn’t even in the running, he’ll never win. He still has a fighting chance this year but I highly, highly doubt it will happen.
DAMIAN LEWIS as Nicholas Brody in HOMELAND
Last year’s winner, the only actor to ever beat Cranston in this category, has a good shot of beating him again this year. Lewis had an excellent second season performance-wise, even if the show went a little off the rails near the end. Should he submit the episode “Q&A”, in which Carrie (Claire Danes) interrogates him, he will almost definitely take home another trophy. And I can’t say it wouldn’t be deserved, despite the many strong contenders in this category.
KEVIN SPACEY as Rep. Francis Underwood in HOUSE OF CARDS
A two-time Oscar winner, Spacey is absolutely beloved in the industry as a consummate pro. His work in House of Cards is hammy as hell but he has such a commanding force with anyone he shares the screen with that I can easily see voters falling head over heels in love with his performance. If House of Cards surprises with a lot of nominations this year I think Spacey could easily be considered the frontrunner in this category, even over Lewis and Cranston.
Also, read my predictions and analysis of other categories: