With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories. Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.
Here are my predictions and analysis for:
30 ROCK (NBC)
This 3-time champion aired its final season this year and remained funny up to its final episode. Though it no longer gets the wins it used to, 30 Rock has been nominated every season it’s been on the air and I don’t see that changing now. Granted, its last episode aired in January but there’s a lot of shows this year that ended even earlier that I’m still predicting to get in. Though the Emmys are notoriously unsentimental, I expect them to give one last nod to 30 Rock.
ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT (Netflix)
The biggest mystery with the Emmy nominations this year is whether or not the voters will go for Netflix, since its an entirely different distribution model. Now that Netflix has acquired Arrested Development, I expect voters to reward it with nominations. The show won this category in 2004, almost singlehandedly saving it from being canceled, so if enough voters are aware of that then they’ll want to give it a return nomination. I could just as easily see it not getting in if enough voters reject the Netflix model.
THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
By far the most popular comedy on television, The Big Bang Theory is gradually getting accepted into the academy as their one multi-camera representative. Though it is about to enter its seventh season, it has never been more popular through both reruns and new episodes. I don’t watch the show that often but I can see why it appeals to both older and younger voters. I expect it to get its most nominations ever this year and has a real shot of winning over the seemingly un-defeatable Modern Family this year.
Girls is one of the most divisive shows on television, both with critics and viewers. Those who hate it really hate it but those who love it ADORE it. I expect that’s what got it into this category last year and will likely get it in again this year. Critics were divided on whether or not this season was better than the first but the fact remains that Girls remains in the conversation in terms of television comedy, so I think it’ll get its second straight nomination. I’m not entirely confident, since there are many contenders, but Girls is a safe bet.
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
The biggest juggernaut in the Comedy Series category will definitely return for a fourth nomination this year. The fact that it has won the past three years may result in a bit of voter fatigue but it will certainly get another nomination at the very least. I’ve heard that the show continues to rest on its laurels and do nothing new but voters seem to respond to that so it very well could win its fourth consecutive Emmy, though I certainly hope they’ll move on this year.
Veep is a darkhorse contender in this category. It is an HBO show, it stars an Emmy darling (Julia Louis-Dreyfus), it got a nomination here last year and it got even funnier in its second season. It also lampoons politics, which Emmy voters tend to love. If Veep expands its nomination total this year I think it has a very good chance of being the top contender to beat Modern Family.
It’s killing me that I’m not predicting Louie to get a nomination, but it’s definitely in the 7th position. Though it is definitely one of the best shows on television, I think it might be too insular to get broad support. The fact that it hasn’t gotten in for seasons 1 or 2 against weaker competition makes me think they’ll never truly go for it, which is a shame. New Girl is definitely another contender that could sneak in, despite not getting in last year. It got a lot more critical support in season 2 as it expanded into a more ensemble comedy. The only reason I’m not predicting it is because there are too many established shows (Modern Family, Big Bang, 30 Rock) in the mix with HBO shows (Girls, Veep) to get through. The Office could get in again after being snubbed last year considering it just ended its final season but the Emmys tend to have a “once you’re out, you’re out” type of sentiment. I can’t see any other show realistically making it into Comedy Series but I’ll admit it was quite difficult to narrow down the top 7 or 8 to the top 6.
Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:
The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.
Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.
Also, read my predictions and analysis of other categories:
Part 1: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Part 2: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Part 8: Variety Series
Part 10: Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Part 11: Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Part 12: Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Part 13: Miniseries/Movie