With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories. Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.
Here are my predictions and analysis for:
AMERICAN HORROR STORY: ASYLUM (FX)
American Horror Story‘s second installment was more critically acclaimed than its first and featured some of the best performances from the past year in television. The first installment was one of the most nominated programs of 2012 and the Emmy love will likely continue here. The fact that it’s one of the most high-profile miniseries in the race makes American Horror Story: Asylum one of the locks in this category with a good shot at winning as well.
BEHIND THE CANDELABRA (HBO)
Unfortunately for American Horror Story: Asylum, it will have to settle for second or third place since Behind the Candelabra is an almost guaranteed win in September. This HBO film got tons of press and boundless critical acclaim, especially for Michael Douglas as Liberace. Considering the film was original intended for theaters and had people talking about Oscar buzz makes this the easy frontrunner. It helps that it’s one of the strongest HBO films in several years.
THE BIBLE (History)
There always seems to be a populist choice that gets into this category every year, and I anticipate that The Bible will fill that slot this year. The Bible was one of the most viewed shows on television during its two-month run and became one of the most financially successful miniseries of all time after its DVD release. It is the type of big-budget production that appeals to enough voters who will rank it in the No. 1 position. Though its actual quality may not be the best, I’d say it’s in.
PARADE’S END (HBO)
Parade’s End is one of those lavish period pieces that the Emmys love to shower with nominations. Though it did not make much of an impact when it aired in late February, it is still a promising contender considering it was also on HBO. With well-respected young talents like Benedict Cumberbatch and Rebecca Hall as the leads, Parade’s End will likely be seen by the right amount of voters who will rank it high enough to get into the top 6. It doesn’t have much of a chance to win, but a nomination seems likely.
PHIL SPECTOR (HBO)
Personally, I hated Phil Spector. However, I’m taking my own personal bias out of this and assuming that many voters will have seen it and potentially just name-check it since they haven’t seen many other miniseries or movies. It has absolutely no chance of winning this award but it has a good chance of getting in on the strength of stars Al Pacino and Helen Mirren in addition to director David Mamet. I can very easily see it not making it, though, considering it was poorly reviewed.
TOP OF THE LAKE (Sundance Channel)
Top of the Lake was one of the best reviewed miniseries of the year, with special praise given to Elisabeth Moss, Holly Hunter and writer/director Jane Campion. The only thing that could potentially work against Top of the Lake getting in here is whether or not enough voters got to see it. Sundance Channel is still a niche cable network that doesn’t have too many subscribers but it’s definitely a high-profile program in this mix. It could be a good alternative to win if enough voters don’t like Behind the Candelabra.
This is a surprisingly tough category, considering it usually feels pretty empty with only one or two genuine contenders. Behind the Candelabra, American Horror Story: Asylum and Top of the Lake are the only contenders I feel truly confident about making it in here. USA miniseries Political Animals could certainly replace any of the other three contenders and it wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not sure if enough voters even know what it is to properly vote for it. I could also see HBO’s The Girl getting in here as well as The Hour, The Big C: Hereafter and Mary and Martha. It likely won’t matter either way because Behind the Candelabra has this category in the bag.
Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:
The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.
Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.
Also, read my predictions and analysis of other categories:
Part 1: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Part 2: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Part 8: Variety Series
Part 10: Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Part 11: Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Part 12: Lead Actress in a Drama Series