2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Drama Series

With the Emmy nominations coming up tomorrow, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories.  Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.

Here are my predictions and analysis for:
Breaking Bad has never been more popular as a cable drama and as a pop culture phenomenon this year.  As it goes into its final eight episodes in August, voters will be watching and keeping it in mind as a possible winner in September.  The show has gotten nominations in this category over the past three years and has gotten five trophies between actors Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul.  It’s probably in the No. 1 or 2 slot at this point.

To say that Downton Abbey over-performed with nominations last year would be an understatement.  When the Emmys love a show, they really love a show, and they usually don’t abandon it very quickly.  That’s why I expect it to get an easy nomination here, since the buzz for the show has continued and it likely remains the absolute top show for voters of a certain age.  If it couldn’t win last year it won’t win this year, but a nomination is almost certain.
Game of Thrones really broke into the cultural lexicon in this year in a big way, especially with the buzz surrounding its penultimate episode.  The fact that it was able to get a nomination in this category in its first year when very few people were watching means that there will be even more voters who are on board with the show who will vote for it in the No. 1 position.  The show has a real chance to take home the trophy this year and I can’t say it wouldn’t be deserved.
HOMELAND (Showtime)
In 2012, Homeland managed to pull off what no show could do in the previous four years: beat Mad Men in Best Drama Series.  This was an especially great feat considering it was for the show’s first season and it just goes to show what happens when voters really get behind a new series.  The series ended up winning Series, Writing, Lead Actor for Damian Lewis and Lead Actress for Claire Danes last year.  It is definitely the biggest lock in this category and could pull off a repeat win.
As I mentioned in my Comedy Series predictions with Arrested Development, Netflix is a real wildcard for this Emmy race, and that includes new series House of Cards.  The show was practically built to take home Emmys considering its subject matter and its tone, but Netflix is untested, so I’m not entirely confident in this prediction.  However, I expect it to sneak into the fifth or sixth slot here based on the amount of buzz following the show and Netflix’s hellbent campaign on getting it in.
Mad Men was once the most beloved show in the Television Academy.  Then last year happened, and they didn’t take home a single trophy.  Regardless, this is still the four-time champion in this category and even if critics thought this season was the weakest one in a while, it will still get in based on pure nostalgic adoration.  It’s Emmy days are probably over in this category but I expect it to keep getting nominated until the series ends.
This is a pretty stacked category, which is a great thing since most of the dramas here are the best on television.  Boardwalk Empire has gotten in the past two years but the buzz has really faded so I doubt it’ll be able to get in again with so many flashier contenders.  The Americans had a great first season and was critically lauded but I have a feeling there won’t be enough voter support to get it past more established shows.  The Good Wife could get back in after its snub last year since it seems to be their network drama of choice, but once you’re out, you’re usually out with the Emmys.  Those are the only contenders that could upset any of my predicted six, but I feel pretty confident in my predictions.
There you have it, folks.  I have officially predicted Emmy nominations in 20 categories.  I hope you enjoyed reading and I can’t wait to see what I got right, and more importantly, what I got horribly, horribly wrong.  Be sure to watch the Emmy nominations announcement tomorrow morning at 8:35 a.m. ET / 5:35 A.M. PT.


Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.


Also, read my predictions and analysis of other categories:

Part 14: Comedy Series

2 comments on “2013 Emmy Nomination Preview & Predictions: Drama Series

  1. I know this is for who WILL win, but Rectify and Hannibal really should get nominated over House of Cards and Downton Abbey. Breaking Bad should win.

  2. I like most of your nominees. Arrested Development getting into series with no acting nominations would be a surprise. I want to predict Archie but Christine has the name and Panjabi had the really negative stuff at the start of the season. I'm predicting Tatiana because I feel unlike Fringe Orphan Black is a show voters could get more and it's a first season show where she plays multiple roles which emmys like so I think if she gets in she wins.

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