With the Emmy nominations coming up on July 18, I am posting predictions and analysis of each of the top categories. Each post consists of predictions and analysis for one category.
Here is my prediction and analysis of:
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
WILL ARNETT as Gob Bluth in ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
Arnett has gradually become one of those rare comedic actors that can successfully act as the leading man or the wacky sidekick. The role of Gob made him what he is today, and the Emmys nominated him for this role in 2006. Seven years later, the revival of Arrested Development was met with mixed reviews, but few can deny that Arnett’s performance is one of the best parts of the new season. As I mentioned with co-star Jason Bateman in Lead Actor, I’m not sure how voters will embrace Netflix but I have a good feeling about Arnett at least.
TY BURRELL as Phil Dunphy in MODERN FAMILY
A perennial nominee (and winner in 2011), Burrell seems like a safe bet to get his fourth consecutive nomination in this category. He is clearly one of the most beloved of the cast, and like Arnett, he can anchor an entire episode’s storyline while still being hilarious. I’m sensing a dip in nominations for Modern Family, now in its fourth season, especially since critics have essentially given up on it and the ratings have slipped, but I think Burrell should be safe, for this year at least.
MAX GREENFIELD as Schmidt in NEW GIRL
The prototype for a scene stealing supporting actor, Greenfield was the most buzzed about performance on New Girl when it premiered last year, resulting in an Emmy nomination. Considering he was largely unknown before this, voters are clearly watching the show and likely continued to in its second season. Despite his role slightly decreasing this year, I still think he’ll get a repeat nomination, since the acclaim for the show managed to get even better, despite its low ratings. He’s a shaky prediction but I can see him sneaking in again.
BILL HADER as various characters in SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
Hader’s exit from SNL this year wasn’t as publicized as Kristen Wiig’s last year, but there was still significant weight to it. His Stefon character during Weekend Update became one of the best things to come from the modern SNL era and his last episode featured a perfect tribute to the character. Always a reliable cast member, Hader was usually able to make any sketch funny through the energy of his performance. He got nominated here last year so I’m thinking he’ll get one last nomination for his work on the show.
SIMON HELBERG as Howard Wolowitz in THE BIG BANG THEORY
A risky choice perhaps, but Helberg has gotten significant buzz for his role this year, and The Big Bang Theory continues to gain viewers every week. Each year, the show seems to get a different actor nominated (besides Jim Parsons) and I have a feeling Helberg could sneak in here. I don’t watch the show but he has long been considered a scene stealer so this may be a long overdue nomination. It should also be noted that he won the equivalent of this award at the Critics Choice TV Awards last week, which only helps his notoriety in the industry.
ERIC STONESTREET as Cameron Tucker in MODERN FAMILY
I was thoroughly embarrassed last year when I predicted Stonestreet to be the second-least-likely person to win this category and then he ended up winning anyway. With two wins, he is the show’s most rewarded actor (along with Julie Bowen) and I don’t see their love stopping any time soon. As I mentioned with Burrell, I expect Modern Family to decrease in nominations this year but Stonestreet has won twice in the last three years, so he’s probably the biggest lock to get into this category at the moment.
I know what you’re probably thinking: Where’s Jesse Tyler Ferguson? Where’s Ed O’Neill? Though Modern Family has hogged four slots in this category for the past two years, I think that will come to end with an influx of great comedy supporting actors this year. As I said, I think voter interest will dissipate on Modern Family as a whole and Ferguson and O’Neill will be the biggest casualties. Granted, I have them in 7th and 8th right now but I can’t see them going for the show with the same enthusiasm as its first three years. As far as other contenders, Jeffrey Tambor is certainly in the mix for Arrested Development, considering he was nominated for the show’s first two seasons and he was an Emmy darling for The Larry Sanders Show. Unfortunately for him, his centric episodes were considered the worst of the new batch so I don’t think he has a very good shot here. David Cross may sneak in if they really go for Arrested Development but there’s a lot of contenders to go through. Adam Driver is a contender for Girls but if he couldn’t get in last year I don’t think he will this year either considering his screentime decreased. I hope some of these risks pay off in July.
Next time on 2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions:
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
The 2013 Primetime Emmy Nominations will be announced on Thursday, July 18.
Please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment section below.
Also, read my predictions and analysis of other categories:
Part 1: Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Part 2: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series